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This article was first published in the Cougar Insiders newsletter. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox each week.
BYU will kick off its Big 12 season by hosting one of the league favorites in Kansas State. This will be a late-night kick between undefeated 3-0 teams in LaVell Edwards Stadium.
A key for this game will be how BYU’s defense stops KSU’s highly touted run attack, led by QB Avery Johnson. A year ago this would have been a disaster for the Cougars, who fielded a defense that could not get off the field when teams ran the ball.
This will also be a great test for BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff, who has made progress in all three games this season. KSU’s defense is very good and will pressure him and cover his receivers. BYU will need to run the ball far better than we’ve seen this season if they want a chance to upend KSU.
In this piece, Jay Drew explains how Retzlaff, who many fans have criticized for his penchant for turnovers, has the backing of his teammates and coaches heading into this critical showdown in league play.
KSU’s strength of schedule getting to 3-0 has come by playing what USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin ranks as the 51st most difficult schedule. BYU’s strength of schedule isn’t significantly different at 61st, with two road trips to Dallas and Laramie.
KSU’s coach Chris Klieman sees Retzlaff as part of the most successful aspect of BYU’s running attack.
“I think the quarterback is a really talented guy. It’ll be one of the better dual-threat guys we’ve faced thus far. … We’ve had guys like the Tulane guy scrambled to throw, Arizona scrambled to throw, (Retzlaff) is going to scramble, throw it, scramble and run. And then you’re going to see some designed runs for him, too.”
BYU has set Retzlaff out of the pocket at times to take pressure off his pass protection and get defenses chasing him laterally. So far he has been relatively successful passing while moving out of the pocket. KSU will be able to apply far more pressure on that kind of move than SIU, SMU or Wyoming.
Question of the week: BYU wants to “establish a presence” on both sides of the line. How will BYU fare on both sides of the trenches against Kansas State in the Big 12 opener?
Jay Drew: Through three games, it is apparent that BYU has upgraded its line play in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The proof is in the pudding, as they say. BYU averaged 5 yards a carry against Wyoming — which isn’t bad defensively — with a trio of backup running backs. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff wasn’t sacked against the Pokes.
Defensively, the Cougars have six sacks through three games, after getting just 10 all of last year.
My point is that they’ve improved in the trenches. How much have they improved? This visit from Kansas State will begin to tell the tale. Anyone who watched KSU dismantle a good Arizona team last Friday can attest to the fact that the purple Wildcats are tough up front.
I think BYU will hold its own in the trenches vs. KSU, but the difference will be quarterback play and running back play, where the visitors will have the edge.
Prediction: Kansas State 34, BYU 24
Dick Harmon: No question Kalani Sitake’s staff has brought more depth to both sides of the line and have been using that depth in three games to keep players fresh. Still, BYU’s offensive line must show more run-game domination in the Big 12, albeit while breaking in third- and fourth-string running backs with LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati banged up.
On defense, BYU has been able to show different fronts, deploy shifting pre-hike looks to confuse and have both pressured and sacked QBs. The run defense is significantly better than last year because of far better execution. BYU’s defense is proving prognosticators wrong every week this season; nobody was expecting this improvement.
Jack Kelly and a healthy Isaiah Bagnah have been a huge help to Tyler Batty and John Nelson, and Blake Mangelson has been effective inside.
The Kansas State game is a perfect test for BYU’s entire team and an opportunity to prove themselves. I think playing in Provo at altitude will be a challenge for KSU. A favorite to win the Big 12, this is exactly the kind of home game BYU likes, taking on a No. 13-ranked team. This game will come down to which team makes the fewest mistakes, and turnovers will be the most important factor.
Prediction: Kansas State 28, BYU 24
Here are some of our stories and commentary from BYU’s win at Wyoming:
Comments from Deseret New readers:
The schedule gets real this week. Before the season is over, I’m betting that Retz will break our heart a time or two with a costly turnover that will cost us the game. But I’m also betting that he will shock a team or two and steal a win for the Cougs that nobody was expecting. I still feel good about my pre-season prediction of seven wins, 2.5 wins more than Las Vegas was forecasting.
— CougfaninTX
All too true, I’m afraid.
“Retzlaff’s performance earned him Pro Football Focus’ fourth-highest grade among Power Four QBs from Week 3, behind only Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel, Georgia Tech’s Haynes King and Miami’s Cam Ward.”
While the above may be true, I can’t help but feel if we’d been playing Utah or K-State last weekend it would’ve been two or three interceptions and even fewer yards rushing. I find myself thinking if the 2021 or ‘22 Cougars had played this Wyoming team it would’ve been more like 50-7 or 55-0.
The Cougars need to fix some things before we go singing the praises of this offense.
— CougarCat
Coach Sitake and A-Rod are betting their futures on a QB with questionable abilities. I wish them luck but I am not holding my breath. Jake has to prove himself this week, we shall see if the Pillsbury Turnover prevails or a new BYU legend is born.
— RickForTruth